How the predictions work, and how accurate they are
Updated: 31 October 2026
No magic box: here we explain simply how PIRScout's numbers are made and show, round by round, how close they came to what really happened.
Where the data comes from
Game stats come from the official EuroLeague box scores and are updated every day after the games. Player prices are those of the EuroLeague Fantasy Challenge and go up before every round.
Expected PIR, step by step
- Form: 60% the last-3-games average and 40% the season average.
- Starting point: early in the season a few games say little. So form is weighed against a starting point made half from the player's price and half from last season's average. It counts like 2 games, so it matters less and less as the season goes on. Until round 9 it counted like 4; we lowered it because with 2 our top 20 scored more in rounds 3–9.
- Home court: +4% at home, −4% away.
- Opponent: how much PIR the opponent gives up to the player's position compared with the average, up to ±15%.
Captain and transfer ideas
The suggested captain is the player in your roster with the highest expected PIR for the round.
For transfers, we look for a replacement for each of your players in the same position, within your credits and with at most 6 players per club. We only suggest swaps worth at least half a point of expected PIR.
How accurate the predictions were
For every finished round, we compare the expected PIR PIRScout showed before the round with what the players really scored. We start counting once players have at least 2 games.
- Our top 20 · avg PIR
- 14.4
- Average player · avg PIR
- 7.6
- Our 3 captains · avg PIR
- 15.4
- Average prediction gap
- ±5.9
Over 9 rounds, the 20 players with the highest expected PIR scored 14.4 PIR on average, while the average player scored 7.6. Each player's prediction was 5.9 points away from the real score on average.
| Round | Top 20 | Average | Captain #1 (exp. → real) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 15.9 | 8.1 | Sasha Vezenkov23.4 → 23.0 | ±5.4 |
| 4 | 14.7 | 7.8 | Sasha Vezenkov24.8 → 7.0 | ±5.7 |
| 5 | 14.2 | 8.0 | Elijah Bryant28.8 → 15.0 | ±5.8 |
| 6 | 15.1 | 7.9 | Theo Maledon21.1 → 26.0 | ±5.9 |
| 7 | 13.9 | 7.8 | Elijah Bryant20.8 → 13.0 | ±6.1 |
| 8 | 14.6 | 7.3 | Sasha Vezenkov23.9 → 19.0 | ±5.9 |
| 9 | 11.3 | 7.3 | Sasha Vezenkov24.3 → 22.0 | ±6.0 |
| 10 | 16.5 | 6.8 | TJ Shorts21.7 → 18.0 | ±6.4 |
| 11 | 13.2 | 7.4 | Elijah Bryant22.1 → 17.0 | ±6.0 |
Players who did not play count as 0, as they would in your team. Numbers are plain PIR, without the 10% win bonus.
How accurate the coach predictions were
For every finished round, we look at how many points the 3 coaches with the most expected points scored compared with the average coach, and how often the team we had as favourite won.
- Our 3 coaches · avg points
- +14.4
- Average coach
- +3.3
- Favourite won
- 62%
Over 11 rounds, the 3 coaches we suggested scored +14.4 points on average, while the average coach scored +3.3. The team we had as favourite won 68 of 110 games.
| Round | Our 3 | Average | Favourites that won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +13.3 | +3.3 | 5/10 |
| 2 | +25.0 | +3.0 | 7/10 |
| 3 | +13.3 | +3.0 | 6/10 |
| 4 | +13.3 | +3.5 | 5/10 |
| 5 | +13.3 | +3.5 | 7/10 |
| 6 | +3.3 | +3.0 | 7/10 |
| 7 | +16.7 | +3.5 | 8/10 |
| 8 | +18.3 | +3.0 | 7/10 |
| 9 | +8.3 | +3.5 | 5/10 |
| 10 | +21.7 | +3.5 | 5/10 |
| 11 | +11.7 | +3.3 | 6/10 |
Coach points come from the final score margin, as in the Fantasy rules. From round 1, last season is the starting point.
What the model does not know
- Injuries and rest before they are announced.
- Role changes, new signings or a new coach, until they show in the games.
- The 10% Fantasy win bonus: the numbers are plain PIR.
- Luck: a cold shooting night or a game decided early changes a lot.
Frequently asked questions
›How is expected PIR calculated?
From form (60% last 3 games, 40% season), a starting point from price and last season, home court (±4%) and the opponent (up to ±15%).
›Does it account for injuries?
Not before they are announced. Always check team news before the round.